青藏高原东北隅弧形构造区现代中小地震密集区与历史强震的关系探讨          下载免费PDF全文

文亚猛  袁道阳  张波  冯建刚 《地震工程学报》2021,43(3):594-606

青藏高原东北隅地区位于青藏高原、鄂尔多斯和阿拉善三大块体交汇部位,发育一组以逆走滑活动为主的弧形断裂系,其新活动性强,历史及现代强震频发,是探讨现代中小地震密集区与历史强震关联性的理想地区,也是检验和发展小震密集区值方法及其适用条件的有利地区。本文采用甘肃省地震局对该区1970年以来1～5级地震仪器监测目录,利用网格点密集值方法进行计算分析,共划分出21个地震密集区。通过分析每个地震密集区内小震活动的时间分布特征及前人对历史地震和活动构造的研究结果,综合判断地震密集区与历史强震之间的对应关系,归纳总结不同震级历史强震密集区的持续时间,给出运用网格点密集值方法校核青藏高原东北隅历史地震的限定条件。研究结果表明:青藏高原东北隅弧形构造区大约66.7%的密集区对应历史强震,两者之间有较密切的关联性;且地震震级越大密集区持续时间越长,两者之间的拟合关系为:T=4.38×10~(-7)×M~(10.91)。  相似文献   

2021年青海玛多7.4级地震前地震活动异常特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

张博  李敏娟 《地震工程学报》2021,43(4):826-833

结合青海玛多7.4级地震前日常跟踪工作中出现的地震活动异常,系统梳理羌塘块体6级地震成组、中国大陆5级地震低频活动、青藏高原东北缘中等地震活动显著增强以及青藏高原东北缘地区震群活动的时空异常特征,总结多项指标的预测意义,并对部分重要指标做了预测效能评估。同时,通过研究碌曲震群的时空分布特征,认为碌曲地区是一个应力敏感区域,对周边地区中强地震的发生有较好的预测意义,在后续震情监视过程中应该作为重要指标来跟踪。  相似文献   

沉积盆地台网稀疏地区中等强度浅源地震起始深度测定——以2013年前郭MS 5.8和2016年Fairview MW5.1地震序列为例     

王向腾  李志伟  邓居智  高金哲  李红星  姚振岸  李晶晶 《地球物理学报》2021,64(3):851-863

沉积盆地中的中等强度浅源地震起始深度不仅是地震成灾研究的重要参数,还是深地下工程开采诱发地震成因研究的关键信息.然而在台网稀疏、沉积层结构复杂的盆地地区,仅利用直达波到时,常常难以获得较为准确的地震起始深度.基于参考事件的Pn/Pg相对定位方法加入Pn震相,可以有效提高震源深度的测定精度.本文针对松辽盆地中2013年前郭M_S5.8地震序列以及Oklahoma州2016年Fairview M_W5.1地震序列,利用Pn/Pg方法测定了两个地震序列中较大地震的起始破裂深度.结果显示:在2013年前郭地震序列中,两个较大地震起始深度和质心深度均在3~5 km左右,震源机制中含有较大的非双力偶源成分.而2016年Fairview M_W5.1地震,主震起始深度约7 km,质心深度约8 km,5个较大的前震则深度分布在5~9 km.根据上述测定结果,推测2013年11月前郭M_S5.8地震序列可能与震源附近的注水活动有关,而2016年Fairview M_W5.1地震则可能由较远处注水活动触发.  相似文献   

利用区域大气静电场监测网临震预估地震灾害   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

陈涛  张效信  张学民  靳小兵  吴晗  提烁  李仁康  李磊  王诗涵 《地球物理学报》2021,64(4):1145-1154

本文通过震例研究提出一种临震前形成晴天大气静电信号异常的物理机制.在大震临震阶段,震中区域附近地壳结构发生临界变化,产生大量的岩石微破碎,岩缝间的通道很可能相互连通起来,并通过土壤缝隙,将包含微量元素的气体释放到空中,其中放射性同位素在弥散到空中的过程中不断产生衰变,特别是产生α粒子的放射性电离辐射.这使得大气充满异常多的正负离子,这些异常多的正负离子可能会产生与晴天大气相反的极化电场并被仪器监测到.本文提出了利用这种晴天大气异常静电信号来评估灾害性大震事件发生的组网监测方法,以及确定潜在震中位置、震级大小和发震时段的技术思路.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada     

Lizhong Zhang  Katsuichiro Goda  Maximilian J. Werner  Solomon Tesfamariam 《地震工程与结构动力学》2021,50(1):6-25

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.  相似文献   

The influence of earthquakes on the Chandler wobble during 1977–1983     

Richard S. Gross 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,85(1):161-177

Summary. A direct calculation is made of the effect on the Chandler wobble of 1287 earthquakes that occurred during 1977–1983. The hypocentral parameters (location and origin time) and the moment tensor representation of the best point source for each earthquake as determined by the 'centroidmoment tensor' technique were used to calculate the change in the Chandler wobble's excitation function by assuming this change is due solely to the static deformation field generated by that earthquake. The resulting theoretical earthquake excitation function is compared with the 'observed' excitation function that is obtained by deconvolving a Chandler wobble time series derived from LAGEOS polar motion data. Since only 7 years of data are available for analysis it is not possible to resolve the Chandler band and determine whether or not the theoretical earthquake excitation function derived here is coherent and in phase with the 'observed' excitation function in that band. However, since the power spectrum of the earthquake excitation function is about 56 dB less than that of the 'observed' excitation function at frequencies near the Chandler frequency, it is concluded that earthquakes, via their static deformation field, have had a negligible influence on the Chandler wobble during 1977–1983. However, fault creep or any type of aseismic slip that occurs on a time-scale much less than the period of the Chandler wobble could have an important (and still unmodelled) effect on the Chandler wobble.  相似文献   

Seismicity and present-day tectonics of the Svalbard region     

B. J. Mitchell  H. Bungum  W. W. Chan  P. B. Mitchell 《Geophysical Journal International》1990,102(1):139-149

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On the linear relation between m_b and M_s for discrimination between explosions and earthquakes     

All A. Nowroozi 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,86(2):687-699

Summary. The statistical capability of the m _b: M _s discriminant for the discrimination of earthquake and explosion populations is examined by application of discriminant functions to a group of 83 explosions and 72 earthquakes in Eurasia. Equations are derived for the probability that an event is an earthquake or an explosion. The positive sign of DIS in the decision index equation, DIS _i = 34.3383 – 11.9569 mb _t + 7.1161 M _si , indicates that the event i is an earthquake. Its negative sign indicates that event i is an explosion. The probability of correct classification for an event, P _i , is related to its DIS _i value, by P _i = [1-exp (DIS _i )]⁻¹, where a large, positive DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an earthquake and a large, negative DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an explosion. The discrimination line M _s = 1.680 m _b– 4.825, or m _b= 0.595 M _s+ 2.872 very successfully separates the explosion population from the earthquake population. The points on this line have an equal chance of being an earthquake or an explosion; moreover, for any event, the distance parallel to the M _s-axis from the point representing that event in the m _b: M _s plane to this line is a measure of the probability for the correct classification of that event.  相似文献   

Coda Q In the Eastern Caribbean, West Indies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

W. B. Ambeh  L. L. Lynch 《Geophysical Journal International》1993,112(3):507-516

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Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Y. Y. Kagan 《Geophysical Journal International》1991,106(1):135-148

We apply several classes of stochastic multidimensional models to statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues using likelihood methods. We investigate the importance of including different earthquake parameters in the model: epicentral coordinates, hypocentral depth, time limits for interearthquake interaction, and especially spatial distribution of earthquakes as well as spatial aftershock patterns. Results of this study combined with other investigations, suggest that most distributions controlling earthquake interaction have a fractal or scale-invariant form. Developed models are used for statistical analysis of several earthquake catalogues to evaluate parameters of earthquake occurrence. These parameters are shown to be similar for shallow earthquakes of different magnitude ranges and seismogenic regions, confirming self-similarity of the earthquake process. Whereas intermediate earthquakes seem to emulate the pattern of shallow earthquake occurrence, albeit at a much smaller aftershock rate, deep earthquakes differ significantly in their properties. Predictability of standard shallow earthquake catalogues has been analysed; we present evidence that for the best available catalogues the predictability is close to 10 bits per earthquake. Several synthetic earthquake catalogues have been created and processed through the likelihood inversion scheme. The results from likelihood analysis of these catalogues confirm our approach.  相似文献